NIS News bulletin, 21 September 2007
THE HAGUE, 22/09/07 - As expected, the cabinet decided Friday that it sees no need for a referendum on the adapted treaty on the future of the EU. This launches a political battle that the opposition will try to exploit to the utmost, while Labour (PvdA) and the conservatives (VVD) hold key positions.
The government decided Friday a referendum was unnecessary and undesirable, in line with advice by the Council of State. The highest advisory body to the government justified its conclusion by the statement that the adapted treaty no longer has a constitutional character.
The Socialist Party (SP) immediately announced Friday it will put forward a proposal to hold a referendum anyway. Party for Freedom (PVV), the leftwing Greens (GroenLinks) and centre-left (D66) will support this proposal. PvdA support would create a Lower House majority.
The coalition parties are faced with electoral damage. Various polls show that the majority of the population does want a referendum. The ratio of supporters and opponents is 64 to 36, according to radio programme Standpunt. Trouw newspaper polled this at 57:43 on Friday.
The PvdA has repeatedly suggested it would prefer to hold a referendum. At the same time, it does not want to destabilise the coalition with the Christian democrats (CDA) and small Christian party ChristenUnie, which are vehemently opposed to consulting the population once again after the Dutch 'no' in June 2005.
The PvdA will discuss its position on Tuesday. Ideally for the party, the SP proposal would pass the Lower House with PvdA support and then be shot down in the Upper House. In that scenario, the PvdA would keep its credibility without it having political consequences.
This scenario however is extremely risky for cabinet stability, as it would give all powers to the VVD. In the Upper House, a majority is achievable without PvdA but not without VVD. This party might then opt to back a referendum, causing a crisis in the CDA-PvdA-ChristenUnie coalition.
The VVD, which is unstable following its schism with vote-puller MP Rita Verdonk, has not taken a position yet. Former VVD leader Frits Bolkestein however on Friday called call for holding a referendum. The differences between the treaty as it now is and the EU Constitution are so small that it would be logical to allow the electorate to give their judgement on it as in 2005, he said in an opinion piece in De Volkskrant.
The cabinet is now increasing "euro-cynicism," according to Bolkestein. The VVD will only take a definite position in the Lower House when the final treaty is ready.
Three arguments played a decisive role for the cabinet in deciding not to hold a referendum. "In the first place," according to a statement issued by the Government Information Service (RVD), "it is important that the new treaty has been stripped of every constitutional characteristic."
In the second place, a 'no' by the electorate would make a monkey out of the cabinet. Or as the cabinet itself says: "A referendum, in which one of the two possible outcomes would lead to a commission for the cabinet that cannot be carried out, is not credible."
Thirdly, "the outcome of the last referendum showed that a non-binding referendum in practice quickly acquires a binding character." Here the cabinet, in the wake of the Council of State, follows a creative argument. "If the government or parties in a House indicate they will follow the result of a referendum whatever happens, then a non-binding referendum cannot in this sense be spoken of. And a binding referendum is not possible without amending the Dutch constitution."
